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Mark's Market Blog

#425 5-21-17: Sexual Molestation

By Mark Lawrence

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Stocks continue to be flat, with a sharp dip for the short period when it was thought perhaps Trump actually would get impeached. Seth Rich and McCain put an end to that. The Bank of Japan continues to buy stocks whenever the Japanese market opens down. Soon the various reserve banks will own everything. Then redistribution will be easy, just ask Mssr. Robespierre.

S&P 500 November 24 2016 to May 23 2017

The big news this week is the possibility of Trump being impeached. Democrats and the media, determined to bring down the president at any cost, smell blood in the water. I don't think it happens this time: John McCain has come out in support of Trump. Trump cannot be impeached until the republicans decide they can get a better deal from Pence. But I do think the efforts will continue, and this will dominate the news for several weeks. One banker, Bon Scott, a Trump supporter, a Constitutional expert and Big "L" Libertarian had this to say in response the 'Impeach Trump' escalation: "10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump... they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding."

Commercial credit and industrial loans have stalled out - there's been no growth since last October, seven months total. This has not happened without the US economy already being in a recession, going back to 1960.

Chapter 11 bankruptcies in Manhattan have tripled in the 1st quarter of the year.

New home sales collapsed in April, dropping 11.4%, a 5 sigma collapse (that means *really* rare).

The Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey crashed by the second largest factor ever. New orders have zero growth, backorders are gone, capacity utilization, hours worked and shipments all plunged. At this point I feel safe saying only Wall Street and Silicon Valley are making money, everyone else is struggling. Question: what looks like a recession, feels like a recession, measures like a recession, but isn't a recession?

I'm told that anti-vaccine people are meeting new immigrants at the Minneapolis airport and telling newbies not to get vaccinated. Whatever the truth is, there are now 69 cases of measles in Minnesota.

N.Korea tested a couple of missiles in the last couple of weeks. They seem to be testing a new motor. Analysts say they could perhaps have an ICBM that could hit Washington later this year. China suggests we stop our spring military drills with S.Korea in return for an end to testing. Washington points out that 1) this is blackmail, trading off a legitimate exercise against illegal missile testing; and 2) previous agreements with N.Korea have not been honored. I'm sticking with my viewpoint: try to buy a regime change; failing that, force a regime change. Kim Delenda Est.

Trump has proposed a budget with heavy cuts to most domestic programs. Food stamps and welfare are cut 25%. EPA funding slashed 30% - no more money for global whatever. Homeland security and the DOD are the exceptions, they are to get more money. Of course we've all seen this coming for ten years - we're already going $1 trillion in the hole every year to fund entitlements and wars. Something has to give. Now congress gets to declare his budget "doa," argue about it for a few months, and come up with something surprisingly close to Trump's proposal.

Crypto-currencies - bitcoin, ethereum, ripple and roughly 800 others - are undergoing exponential growth. Etherium rose 88% last week, 2000% ytd. Ripple is up 7000% ytd. Bitcoin is up a measly 122% ytd. They will go up forever, 'cause, um, the future, computers, internet, quantum something. Yup, that's it. Nothing to see here, no bubble. If I were starting a crypto-currency, I believe I would name it "tulip." Isaac Newton would have a good laugh over that.

This is Seth Rich. He's dead. Shot just outside his Washington DC apartment last July 11. He worked for the Democratic Party. This week we find out that he passed 44,053 emails from the DNC to Wikileaks. It wasn't Russia, it was never Russia. It was a democrat. Who got dead. Hillary has a lot to answer for. Noteworthy: Julian Assange of Wikileaks said all along it was "not a state actor." Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) May 20, 2017 via Twitter: "I knew Seth Rich. I know he was the @Wikileaks source. I was involved." Also, "I'm meeting my legal team on Monday. I will issue a statement about #SethRich on Tuesday. Please be patient. This needs to be done properly." Anonymous claims the DNC is in a panic, with Podesta and Hillary receiving emails saying "I know the truth." I think this whole Seth Rich thing is going to get very interesting.

A fascinating read: a couple of Stanford professors say that the turning point on self-driving electric cars is 2021, and by 2030 there will be almost no gasoline cars left. Oil will be $25 / barrel. Several cities will outlaw driving yourself. Ford, GM, Toyota, insurance companies, gas stations, oil companies are all in dire trouble. Electric cars have almost no moving parts and should last two to four times as long as gasoline cars. But for those who are big fans of global warming: this won't do much for you. Cars recharge at night when the available power is mostly coal. The changeover will only reduce carbon emissions by about 6.5%. Meanwhile, governments everywhere want a piece of this action for their own countries - in the US there's a $7500 tax credit for buying early; all over Europe governments are funding battery factories like Musk's gigafactory. If the cars don't happen, batteries are going to get seriously cheap.

In 1988 the soviet union was obviously falling apart and it seemed clear a multi-generational theme of history was ending. I was not thinking at all of what was next. A friend of mine, Steve Bankes, an analyst for Rand, said to me, "The next major world conflict will be Western Enlightenment v. Middle East Macho." I was stunned at the very idea: Arabs? Dominating the world stage? A bunch of camel herders? competing against the world's greatest armies? I love Lawrence of Arabia as much as anyone, but they were going to threaten western civilization by blowing up some train tracks? I remember this clearly because of how stunning it seemed to me. Well, here we are thirty years later and Steve was perfectly prescient. The camel herders are blowing up train tracks, or perhaps more accurately subways and airplanes and night clubs. What I missed was the globalists on our side who wanted to abolish all national borders, coupled with the Arabs having six children per woman with the resulting uncontrolled overpopulation bursting out of the middle east like cockroaches out of an over-filled dumpster. (Yes, I went there: I'm comparing arab muslims to cockroaches.) I've spent a lot of time thinking about this conflict, and I've come to some conclusions. I'm not accustomed to footnoting my blog, but I'll be making some rather shocking claims this week and so I'll be backing them up with sources.

If you want to breed a superior dog, here's how you do it: get a population of dogs, separate them into groups, and inbreed the individual groups for several generations. Inbreeding has a couple very positive attributes: superior recessive genes get reinforced and conserved; deadly recessive genes get reinforced and weeded out of the population. The result is German Shepherds with superior intelligence and loyalty but high-strung, crummy hips and suspect digestive systems. After several generations of this inbreeding you remove the barriers and let the dogs breed as they will. (Chihuahuas of course all get eaten within 5 minutes of the fences coming down, those genes have no place in the New Dog Order.) You let the interbreeding continue for a few generations, then you shock the population with something that kills off half of more. What's left is a mutt the best of the traits: a Shepherd - Lab - Pit Bull mix with intelligence, loyalty, powerful muscles, calmness, good hips and a better digestive tract. This is called hybrid vigor. The pure blood German Shepherds got taken down by bad hips and digestive problems. Note that death is a big part of this: during the inbreeding the inferior pups get culled, not bred; later the population shock takes out much of the genetic bottom half. If you keep all the dogs alive and breeding, you get a lot of junk genes.

There are several human sub-species, separated mostly by geography: Westerners in Europe and N.America. Asians in East and Southeast Asia. Africans in sub-saharan Africa. Latinos in Central and South America. And Arabs in the middle east. Historically humans have always had pockets of inbreeding due to geography and the limits of transportation; but every few centuries the fences came crashing down due to mass invasion of Greeks, Romans, Huns, Manchurians, Persians, Spanish, etc. America is the poster child for cross-breeding for the last couple of centuries: if we feel we're missing out on genes from south-east asia, we start a war there, invade, and bring home hundreds of thousands of war brides and refugees. Silicon Valley thrives on H1-B visas and the importation of tens of thousands of Indians. California has brought in tens of millions of Latinos who have spread themselves throughout our nation. And of course two hundred years ago we got our start by mixing up English, German, Scandinavian, French, Italian, Spanish, Polish blood. At some level I see the muslim conflict as our bringing in Arab genes in large numbers - more so right now in Europe than the US, but the trend is clear. Interbreeding happens automatically: in France today, 26% of marriages are of mixed background, French / African or French / Arab. The mixing is independent of sex, there's about the same number of French men and women who marry immigrants. It's likely that in 100 years the French will be a genetically stronger group, but at the cost of no longer being a culture that de Gaulle would recognize. Especially if there's a malthusian shock that takes out a substantial fraction of the French.

Mixed in with the genes you have culture, and this is where I see the real issues. Arab culture includes a couple pieces that I consider anathema. There is a strong preference to marry first cousins: in Pakistan, for example, as many as 70% of all marriages involves first cousins or closer blood relationships. Mohammed married a couple of his cousins, so this is considered the blue print. This has resulted in Pakistanis having on average a significantly lower IQ than Europeans with four times the rate of mental retardation and ten times the birth defect rate. Pakistanis in the UK are 2% of the population but account for a third of all birth defects and 20% of all infant deaths. Pakistan is the poster child for incest, but this is spread all through the arab countries: 70% of Pakistanis are inbred, 67% of Saudi Arabians, 64% of Jordanians and Kuwaitis, 63% of Sudanese, 60% of Iraqis, 54% of muslims in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are inbred. 1400 years of incestuous breeding has changed these people dramatically. Consanguineous marriage is not unknown in the west: Darwin and Einstein married their first cousins, and eight hundred years ago my ancestry includes a British brother-sister pair that married. However, today this practice is extremely rare outside the muslim belt. In Denmark two-thirds of arab students are illiterate after ten years of school - this is the next generation they hope will take over their economy and pay their retirement benefits. It's been claimed that terrorism is substantially a result of inbreeding and the resultant low IQs, schizophrenia, depression, birth defects and susceptibility to disease. One study found that 90% of suicide bombers were suffering from severe illness such as blindness, cancer, missing limbs or leprosy.

My second issue is with sexual molestation of youth: this is completely accepted in the Arab world, in no small part due to 53 year old Mohammed marrying a six year old girl (to his "credit" he always claimed the marriage was not consummated until she was nine). There are now numerous stories of muslims molesting young children all over Europe, Britain, Scandinavia. Molesting children seems incredibly common in the muslim world. In fact it seems reciprocal: there are also stories of NGOs in Greece and France being investigated for sexual molestation of refugees. (Welcome to Europe, now pull down your pants.) NGO sexual abuse, Female refugees molested, Molestation in Calais, Refugee sex trade. Not, mind you, that molesting young women is unknown in the US - heck, one of our presidents is a pedophile. But here it's illegal, not a way of life. Molesting children comes in several despicable forms, and the muslims have invented a particularly gruesome new form, female circumcision or female genital mutilation (FGM). Three million seven to twelve year old girls undergo this heinous form of rape every year, and now it's in the US. It's my opinion that this is a big part of the reason why arab society is so dysfunctional: people molested as children grow up to be angry adults who mistreat their children and each other, and all too often turn into molesters themselves. In the Bhagavad-Gita we are taught, "When women of the family are corrupted, then chaos is born in society." Arab society is nothing but chaos, and molesting children, in my considered opinion, is a major reason. Arab/muslim society is, imho, severely mentally diseased and should be quarantined, not imported in massive numbers.

Thinking of buying a new TV? Bottom line: don't. There's a new kid on the block, 4k and UHD. We're told these TVs are simply better. Are they? Well, sorta. If you sit really close. In the chart below we see that to appreciate a 4k TV you have to be within about 6' for a 50" tv; for an 80" TV you have to be within 10'. Why? Imagine the TVs were all 100 yards away - you would not be able to see much of anything except if the TV was on or off. As you walk towards the TV you see more and more detail. For a 50" TV, at about 20 feet you can just start to see the difference between old analog broadcast and new digital. At 15 feet you can start to see 720, the standard for DVDs, which is now pretty much completely gone: you can't hardly give away a 720 TV. At 10' away you start to see the improvement of 1080, which is the current broadcast and blu- ray standard. At 6' away you start to see the improvement of 4k. At 4' away you would just start to see the improvement of 8k, which doesn't exist for TVs but which is the standard for the best movie theaters. For an 80" TV you get the complete 4k experience at 5' away. Your mother told you not to sit that close or you'd ruin your eyes. If you have an 80" TV I'm betting it's 15 feet away from your couch, which means you're just starting to see the difference between blu-rays and DVDs. Furthermore, digital TV is changing soon. In about a year we'll start switching over to ATSC 3.0 and broadcast TV will be 4k. As best I know at the time of this writing there are no ATSC 3.0 TVs available in the US. There are a couple stations broadcasting 4k in Korea, and there are a couple TVs sold in Korea that can receive 4k. So if you buy a 4k TV now, a year from now it will be unable to get broadcast TV in 4k. It's not time to buy an expensive new large TV. And don't even talk to me about 3D, as far as I'm concerned there's exactly one movie made that was actually better in 3D and that's Avatar. I've seen a few other 3D movies and it's just a distraction.

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