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Mark's Market Blog

4-25-09: Breaking out of the Channel

By Mark Lawrence

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We've been having a very nice time for almost two months now, pretending that the most severe banking / unemployment / consumer confidence / housing bubble crises in 75 years is almost over. "G7 signals worst of world recession may be over." Meanwhile, the IMF says this year will be the first world-wide economic contraction in 50 years. Well, we'll see. Monday the markets dropped decisively. Then for the rest of the week the markets staggered somewhat upwards, not quite recovering to the level from the previous Friday. Meanwhile half of all the talking heads told us the party was over, and the other half told us this was just a pause while our generous hosts, the Fed and the Treasury, sent out for more wine and guacamole.

S&P 500 from January 23rd 09 to April 24th 09

This is the last week of Chrysler's reprieve. The bond holders continue to be dug in, and continue to seem to think they'll get a better deal in bankruptcy. It's pretty hard right now to see how Chrysler is going to avoid a liquidation. I continue to believe that when they file, the bottom will drop out of this market.

Dies irae, dies illa
Solvet saeclum in favilla,
Teste David cum Sibylla.

Quantus tremor est futurus
Quando judex est venturus
Cuncta stricte discussurus.
Day of wrath, that day
Will dissolve the earth in ashes
As David and the Sibyl bear witness.

What dread there will be
When the Judge shall come
To judge all things strictly.

And yes, I'm having a lot of fun with this.

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