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Mark's Market Blog

9-13-15: Will she or won't she?

By Mark Lawrence

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The market is in a flag formation (blue lines below) and clearly it will break out early next week. Up or down? That's always the question. China is not resolved. The Fed has not made public their decision on raising rates. Liquidity continues to be an issue. And bonds, which always go in the opposite direction of stocks are going in the same direction - both are going down together. No one wants to own either stocks or bonds, no one has any cash they want in any market, no one knows how bad things are or will get in China, no one knows what Yellen will do on the 17th. You have to figure the high probability is the flag formation breaks downwards. Personally I'm looking for a drop to about 1820 or so, then a bounce to maybe 1860 or perhaps 1980. I'm not predicting that, I'm just watching for it.

S&P 500 March 21 2014 to September 11 2015

Fed week. They raise rates this week, or hold off until December. If they raise rates it will almost certainly be by 1/4%, which is pretty minuscule, but somehow everyone is all caught up in the hysteria / mythology.

Goldman Sachs now says oil is likely heading to $20, something you've been reading about here for three weeks. The gods of finance expect oil to be at $45 a year from now, rebounding from the drop to $20. They base the rebound on the elimination of most US oil producers.

New reports indicate that over 50 intelligence reports about fighting ISIL have been altered by senior intelligence officials to fit with Obama's insistence that the US is winning. Former CIA deputy director Michael Morrell said, "One of the central tenants, one of the key aspects of the policy-making process in the United States is that analysts get to say what they think without any interference, without anybody changing it, so this is a very, very serious charge. If there is truth that somebody has been meddling with their analysis, I think somebody needs to lose their job over it."

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has ruled out the use of quantitative easing as a policy to help stimulate growth in the world's second- largest economy. He said during a speech at the World Economic Forum, "The stable fundamentals have not changed. We are fully capable to address it if there are signs that the economy slips beyond a reasonable range. China won't see a hard landing in the economy." When I read this my immediate first thought was to remember LBJ's famous quote, "I don't care if it's true, I just want to hear him deny it!"

Minnesota's US attorney, Andrew Luger, said Wednesday that groups "like the Islamic State" have since exclusively targeted the Twin Cities Somali community - 30,000 muslim Somalis brought in to the US as refugees and settled in Minnesota, I have no idea why. Now some are being arrested and charged with recruiting for terrorism. Luger said, "To be clear: We have a terror- recruiting problem in Minnesota. And this case demonstrates how difficult it is to put an end to recruiting here. Parents and loved ones should know that there is not one master recruiter organizing in the Somali community locally. What this case shows is that the person radicalizing your son, your brother, your friend, may not be a stranger. It may be their best friend right here in town." Minneapolis City Council member Abdi Warsame, who was born in Somalia, said, "What my community, the Somali-American community, needs today is no less than a 'Marshall Plan' tailor-made to the community's employment challenges." Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges "Minneapolis' Somali community is a tremendous asset to our city. We must all support this community and their ability to contribute to our prosperity, or we will not be the city we need to be." Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri called on young Muslim men in the United States and other Western countries to carry out attacks, "I call on all Muslims who can harm the countries of the crusader coalition not to hesitate. We must now focus on moving the war to the heart of the homes and cities of the crusader West and specifically America." How can the Somali community be a tremendous asset yet also need a Marshall plan and support? Personally, I think anyone in the US who wants to support ISIL or Al Qaeda should be flown to the middle east immediately, stripped of their US passport and residence rights, and turned loose. Why on earth would we want to collect ISIL supporters here in the US? How can this end well? Here's some must-see TV: Ann Corcoran on Refugee Resettlement.

221B Baker Street - the home of Sherlock Holmes - is now worth well north of £1 million. In fact about half the houses in a 5 mile radius of Sherlock's home are worth over £1 million. It's actually harder for us normal folks to buy a place in London than it is in Manhattan. Sherlock lived about half way between Kensington Palace and the Regent's park, about a mile from Buckingham palace.

Bonus picture:

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